Still on PNoy berating Pagasa...

"Look at Japan and look at Bangladesh.  Japan has more scientists than lawyers.  Bangladesh has more lawyers than scientists.  Now, look at the Philippines.  While export our scientists, we have to exile our lawyers." -- Yosi break observations.

Bad Manners Gun Club has this to say about PNoy berating Pagasa:

So while President N/A’s criticism of the agency might well be criticized as a lame cover for his own lack of initiative, it’s still objectively valid — as long as the country has to rely on PAGASA for guidance on how to withstand and recover from destructive storms, PAGASA owes it to the country to do a better job. Getting them the equipment they need should be a critical priority — but then so should making sure that the agency is appropriately-staffed with competent, motivated people who understand the importance of what they do. Hopefully, the president understands that as well, and won’t simply assume that his over-reported complaints amount to proper attention to the matter. The next storm may be worse or it may not, but one thing is absolutely certain: it will be here, eventually.

I tend to agree with what BMGC said, but I'd have to add a couple of things.

First, not many people realize the extent to which Pagasa is underfunded, undermanned, and ill-equipped for the "important" job they are supposed to do.

My wife, who has met almost everyone in Pagasa over the years as a reporter, relates that the people in this small government agency is made up mostly of scientists -- actual scientists -- whose job is to make sense out of the data they get.  

She says that the reason that the country gets only a few snippets of satellite images every six or so hours is because that is  what the agency's budget can afford -- we do not have it on tap.  

Perhaps, our weather scientists are forced to make predictions with huge gaps in their data.

Ergo, they have stick their heads out of the window and use their Magic Eight Balls as well as jargon laden explanations of why their predictions missed.

And, I think it would be a mistake to say that our people at Pagasa AREN'T IMAGINATIVE... Because after sticking their heads out of the window and using their eight balls, THAT'S THE ONLY THING THEY HAVE TO RESORT TO... They have to imagine what the next series of satellite images will look like.

If you want to talk about brain drain, another friend relates that one of our meteorologists had finally given up on trying to serve the country that he opted to get a job at Australia's (don't know where exactly) weather bureau.  From P20,000 a month, he is getting ten times that plus other benefits.

Anyway, as far as bad predictions go, all weather services -- even the best ones --  have that problem... Hence, the Weatherman Cliche.

If we want a better weather service, we might have to look seriously into pouring more funds into it -- which is the job of Congress, a branch of government which Pnoy was a part of until very recently.

I don't know if at all PNoy found it necessary to champion the cause of better weather prediction services in all of his nine years in the Lower House.  After all, his home province is Tarlac and it is part of the Central Luzon Region (along with Pampanga, Zambales, Bulacan) which regularly experiences flooding.  With better weather prediction services, he would have help his province as well as other provinces with huge flood plains in setting the timing of their planing season as well as avoid typhoon related disasters.

Perhaps, in Pnoy's first SONA, he should make a point to ask congress for increased funding for weather predictions services as well as DISASTER RISK MAPPING, DISASTER PLANNING AND PREVENTION.

This is closer to a solution than berating a couple of scientists.

We are poor because of disasters and lack of good governance, NOT CORRUPTION

Typhoon Basyang is another reminder that we ought to learn from our disasters.

You can berate the Pagasa and other government agencies for not doing their jobs well enough or at all.  If that were all a President needs to do in order to set things right, fine! Fire away and enjoy the applause.

But, on a place called Earth and in a country called the Philippines, recriminations and blaming doesn't provide relief for those who were affected or ensure that when the next disaster comes, people will be prepared to deal with it.

We now have a President whose Inauguration was peppered with the word 'pagbabago' and then, about fifteen days into his administration, we see this:

- Pagasa makes a wrong prediction on a typhoon's path

- People are not warned and made to prepare

- Vital infrastructure as well as private buildings and homes are destroyed, basic services are disrupted (power, water, communications) for days.

- Officials are taken to task, promises are made to fix what needs to be fixed.

- Disaster relief is distributed, calamity funds are disbursed.

If you look at the newspapers or Google the news streams last year, guess what?  You'd find the exact same pattern of events.

Look a year before that and a year before that.  Look at every year before this year and you will see the same thing happening over and over and over again.

Okay, I'll give the President a break.  Maybe there's nothing much you can do in 15 days to prepare for and prevent the problems we encountered when Basyang hit Metro Manila squarely.

Then again, perhaps, for someone who has been working on solutions to ending the cycle of disaster and poverty for decades, something might have been done to prevent some of the damage we suffered.

Perhaps, instead of saying 'wang-wang', he would have sounded the sirens to warn the people that the typhoon season is fast approaching and people needed to prepare.

Perhaps he would have sounded the siren to signal the necessity of checking vital infrastructure that might get hit by strong winds or floods.

Seeing as our weather prediction equipment and personnel are almost useless, perhaps an arrangement could have been made for us to acquire the weather prediction capabilities of Japan, Hongkong, and Malaysia -- which have sophisticated weather satellites.

Perhaps, rather than quibble over who gets to be AFP chief of staff, he would have mobilized the NDCC BEFORE the disaster and not AFTER.

Perhaps, instead of a communications group, it would have been better to prioritize an EMERGENCY BROADCAST SYSTEM/DISASTER WARNING SYSTEM so that people can either be warned or informed.

Nevertheless, to fix the problem, here are six steps that can be done by ANY community in order to lessen the impact of any disaster.

(1) Predict possible threats in the community;
(2) Plan what to do in times of disasters;
(3) Prepare the community for what it would need;
(4) Practice or conduct first aid trainings and emergency evacuation drills;
(5) Report instantly pertinent information about the disaster to LGUs, the Red Cross, and other authorities;
(6) Respond immediately to those in need.

PNoy parties as Basyang rips through Metro Manila

In 2009, after Typhoon Ondoy, there was a hearing in the Philippine Senate where Pagasa made its case for the acquisition of Doppler Radar Systems that would help improve the accuracy of its weather predictions.  

With the systems having been procured and installed, it would now be reasonable enough to expect that Pagasa would now be able to warn people about the direction and strength of an approaching typhoon.

However, Typhoon Basyang has shown that Pagasa -- despite having better equipment -- still couldn't make an accurate prediction about the approaching typhoon.  It had said that Basyang would not hit Metro Manila and it did. 

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20100714-281049/Pagasas-weather-forecasting-misses-on-Basyang-hitting-Metro 

At present, PAGASA has two radars with upgraded Doppler capabilities, one in Baler and another in Baguio. But the Baler radar has a blind spot to the east because of the Sierra Madre mountains while the Baguio radar cannot cover Metro Manila. This means PAGASA is only making do with the information from these radars and from old radars.

By August, the agency hopes the upgraded Doppler radar in Subic would be completed. This radar would cover Metro Manila. By September, PAGASA said it would see the completion of the upgrade of radars in Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur; Tampakan, North Cotabato; Cebu and Tagaytay. The last radar station would have the capability to cover Metro Manila.

As expected, Pagasa explained away the error, pointing out kinks in its weather prediction model as well as gaps in our country's Doppler Radar system (we only have two and one has a blindspot).

However, the thing is, blaming the weatherman for making a mistake in predicting the weather is CLICHE and PNoy made great friends with this CLICHE with gusto.

The thing is, the island of Luzon is such a narrow target that predicting the path of a typhoon is like predicting whether an elephant can walk through a narrow corridor without breaking anything.

The point is, typhoons are notoriously treacherous and in the face of such a beast, it pays to be overly prudent.

In the crucial hours before the typhoon, PNoy was said to have been partying with Palace reporters.

For the latest Philippine news stories and videos, visit GMANews.TV

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/196108/calm-before-the-storm-pnoy-sings-to-reporters-before-basyang

It didn’t take much prodding from reporters for President Benigno “Noynoy" Aquino III to grab the microphone and sing Tuesday night.

At a dinner with Palace reporters, Aquino dished out two songs — Florante’s “Handog" and Dennis Lambert’s “Of All the Things" — before some 150 reporters, Malacañang staff, and white-clad members of the Presidential Security Group.

Aquino intended to sing the Dennis Lambert hit only, but shouts of “More! More!" prompted him to take the stage again for a second number.

“Alam niyo last time niyo ko pinakanta binanatan ako ng mga limang kolumnista (The last time you made me sing, about five columnists criticized me)," Aquino told reporters in jest.

Members of the audience gamely joined him in singing Florante’s immortal lines: “Tatanda at lilipas din ako/ Nguni't mayrong awiting / Iiwanan sa inyong ala-ala / Dahil, minsan, tayo'y nagkasama."

It wasn’t the first time Aquino entertained the crowd with his singing. 

At his inaugural street party last June 30, the President sang Michel Legrand’s 1960s hit “Watch What Happens" and Freddie Aguilar's 1980s hit “Estudyante Blues" before an audience of 120,000.

The dinner took place a few hours before Metro Manila was lashed by strong winds brought by Typhoon Basyang which, according to government reports as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, killed 18 people.

Aquino was visibly worried about the possible impact of the cyclone during the social function. He was asking his staff for updates and telling reporters on the sidelines about his government’s preparation plans for high-risk areas.

Knowing that Pagasa makes errors in predicting the path of Typhoons, PNoy ought to have been at the helm of the NDCC hours before the typhoon hits, instead of partying with Palace reporters.

Anyway, apart from Pagasa, we also have to strengthen our Coast Guard and Navy.  Apart from Doppler radar systems, we need to operationalize a nationwide tracking system that would show us exactly where all Philippine vessels are at any given time.

(Maybe more later, on the same topic.)